The Russian Federation’s planned expansion of pork production and reduction in imports has been threatened in recent weeks by additional outbreaks of African Swine Fever (ASF). The disease has been present since at least 2007 and has become an increasingly larger problem. Increasing pork and other meat imports are a logical short-term solution to maintain consumer supplies.
ASF is a virus that spreads rapidly with a high mortality rate for which there is no means of prevention or treatment. Eliminating infected animals is the only control solution. It is not transmitted to humans. According to reports by Bloomberg News, Des responsables vétérinaires russes ont déclaré qu’ASF avait été découverte 21 of Russia’s 83 regions and is “progressively getting worse.” In early January, une ferme dans le sud de la Russie a dû détruire plus de 30,000 porcs à cause de la maladie, the largest outbreak to date. Outbreaks occurred in December in three other regions. It is spreading because of infected wild boars, petites fermes porcines (environ un tiers de l'approvisionnement en porcs) qui sont plus susceptibles de propager la maladie et de ne pas contrôler correctement les mouvements d'animaux vivants.
La Russie a une union douanière avec la Biélorussie et le Kazakhstan, and both have curtailed internal movement of live animals. One of the outbreaks in Russia is near the border with Kazakhstan and the government has restricted imports. Other Eastern European countries are concerned about the virus spreading farther in the region.
Any movement toward allowing additional pork imports for Russia would be a reversal of policies in recent years. Selon le U.S. Agricultural Attaché in Moscow, en décembre 31 de l'année dernière, le gouvernement russe a annoncé pour 2012 un contingent tarifaire (TRQ) pour le porc de 400,000 Tonnes métriques (MT), vers le bas de 472,000 MT for 2011. A pork trimmings TRQ was set at 30,000 MT, à partir 27,500 MT last year. A frozen poultry meat TRQ was set at 330,000 MT, vers le bas de 350,000 MT last year. A frozen beef TRQ was set at 530,000 MT et un boeuf frais un à 30,000 MT, inchangées par rapport à l'année précédente. Adjustments will be made in some of the TRQs when Russia joins the WTO about mid-year. Some pork and beef enter at over quota tariff rates, et certains porcs hors quota sont également importés.
The Russian government has been providing subsidies for larger farms to increase pork production. Les Etats Unis. agricultural attaché reported large hog farms increased production by 7.5 percent in the first six months of 2011 compared to a year earlier. Dans 2010 most of the increased production came from 78 Nouveau, reconstructed and modernized hog farms, avec 75 percent of the increased production occurring in just six of the 81 regions of the country. The pork and poultry industries received $300 million in subsidies in 2010 to offset feed costs.
In October the Foreign Agricultural Service of USDA projected 2012 Russian pork production at 2.02 en millions de tonnes (MMT), en haut 2.8 pour cent de 2011 et 23.2 pour cent de la 1.64 MMT produced in 2007. If ASF continues to affect large farms like the one depopulated earlier this month, achieving a 2.8 percent increase in pork production will likely not occur.
Other meat supplies probably will not fill the entire gap in pork production. Domestic beef production is in a slow year-to-year decline as the dairy herd contracts; sur 97 percent of beef comes from dairy animals. Fabrication en 2012 sera en baisse 1.4 pour cent à 1.39 MMT. Some efforts are underway to developed beef breeds of cattle, but they will have little impact on the current supply of beef. Beef imports will be up only 10,000 MT à 1.06 MMT. Young chicken meat production is expected to be up 230,000 MT en 2012 à 2.75 MMT, alors que les importations seront en baisse 36,000 MT à 354,000 MT.
La Russie continue de reconstruire son agriculture après la crise politique de 20 il y a quelques années et les bas prix de l'énergie 10-15 years ago that limited funds available for further agricultural development. Russian political leaders had considered the country overly dependent on meat imports and began to channel funding into livestock and poultry production. Cutting the TRQs for pork and chicken meat was part of the effort to create a favorable market for domestic production. With beef production still declining, Les contingents tarifaires sont restés stables.
Developing modern livestock industries will require animal health procedures that limit the spread of diseases like ASF. Problems in recent years with animal health issues in China and South Korea show how hard animal health issues can be to solve. Both countries relied on meat imports to replace the unplanned declines in domestic meat production. That is a rational use of import markets and increases efficiencies in domestic markets and for meat exporters.
En préparation de l'entrée à l'OMC, le gouvernement russe devait rendre ses futures politiques d'importation de viande acceptables pour les membres actuels de l'OMC. Le porc bénéficiera d'un tarif contingentaire favorable de zéro, mais un tarif hors quota de 65 pour cent. En janvier 2020 le contingent tarifaire pour le porc sera remplacé par un tarif forfaitaire ne dépassant pas 25 pour cent. Pour le boeuf, le tarif contingentaire sera 15 pour cent avec le tarif hors quota à 55 pour cent. Certains produits de volaille seront soumis à des tarifs contingentaires de 25 pour cent et tarifs hors quota de 80 pour cent. All sanitary and phyto sanitary (SPS) les mesures seront élaborées et appliquées conformément à l'accord de l'OMC. La Russie rejoindra et participera activement au Codex Alimentarius, l'Organisation mondiale de la santé animale (OIE) et la Convention internationale pour la protection des végétaux et appliquera les normes internationales pour les mesures SPS.
Now is the time for Russia to increase pork trade to limit costs for consumer and maintain the long-term pork market. As a major exporter of wheat and barley, trade in agricultural and food products by Russia is a normal business activity. Domestic industries should understand that maintaining adequate supplies for consumers gives better returns in the long-run than high prices due to shortages followed by long-term losses in market demand. If Russia allows for increased pork imports now, les exportateurs de porc peuvent considérer la Russie comme l'un des nombreux pays qui peuvent acheter de la viande en fonction des demandes du marché plutôt que d'une prise de décision strictement politique.
Ross Korves est un analyste politique économique avec vérité sur le commerce et la technologie