Tus Economic Bullets yog tiag rau teb pauv nyob rau hauv tsov rog nrog Suav teb

Tus hais lus lawm. Now we’re fighting a real trade war—and here on my farm in Iowa, I’m on the front line.

Cov lus tsis txaus siab ntawm lub teb chaws As Mes Lis Kas thiab Suav teb poses ib tug tib neeg kev hem thawj rau kuv livelihood. Vim yog cov tshiab thiab qho tariffs rau ob tog, Tej yam uas kuv loj hlob yuav muag tsawg thiab tej yam uas kuv yuav raug nqi ntau tshaj.

Lub lim tiam no tus nqi ntawm hogs poob $12 for every pig I sell. A few mornings ago, soybeans tau nqes 40 cents a bushel – a $1.7 billion poob rau tus nqi ntawm U.S. soybeans. And if I want to make new capital purchases of machinery or grain bins—anything made with steel or aluminum—I’ll have to pay a higher amount.

Xyoo, we’ve engaged in a war of words with China over trade. American officials have complained about everything from China’s currency manipulation and subsidized industries to a trade deficit that hit a record level in 2017. Qhov txawv ntawm dab neeg Asmeskas yuav ntawm Suav teb thiab zoo li cas suav yuav los ntawm lub teb chaws As Mes Lis Kas mus txog $375 tsaib no. President Trump tsis ntev los no uas cog noob kom lub teb chaws As Mes Lis Kas txo qhov kis no yog tsawg kawg yog $100 txhiab.

lub hli tas los, President Trump raug rho tawmired ib salvo, tshaj tawm tshiab tariffs 25 feem pua ntawm cov hlau ntsha thiab 10 feem pua rau aluminum. Tuam Tshoj retaliated ob peb hnub dhau los nrog ib daim ntawv teev tariffs tshiab, nyiam $50 Billion of American-made khoom. Ntau yam txiv hmab txiv ntoo thiab cov txiv hmab txiv ntoo, Piv txwv, fim 15 nyiaj ua se tau feem pua. Li ntawd, yuav muaj ntau hom stainless hlau kav.

China also slapped a 25-percent tax on pork products—a category that affects me directly because I raise hogs. Peb sim muag txhua qhov ntawm cov tsiaj, ntawm cov nqaij rau cov nqaij. Txawm tias ua ntej cov pauv tsov rog npoo, pork prices weren’t very good. Tam sim no lawv muaj nqis rau tus nqi qis txij thaum 2003.

Tam sim no yam yeej yuav los phem tshaj.

Lub Trump coj teb Tuesday los ntawm proposing ntau tshaj 1,300 tariffs tshiab rau suav khoom, nrog rau TV, tshuaj, tshuab ntswg. They’re also worth about $50 txhiab, in a tit-for-tat move that aims to match China’s latest round.

Tam sim no Suav teb tau tua rov qab. Hnub Wednesday, Nws ntxiv tariffs rau ntau tshaj 100 TUAJ. khoom, nrog rau cov tsheb thiab dav hlau. Qhov no muab rau kuv, too. If the Chinese impose the announced tariff of 25 feem pua rau soybeans, Lwm yam khoom loj rau kuv ua teb, nws yuav txo kuv tus nqi $2.50 hav txwv lim.

China isn’t the only market for my pork and soybeans. Txo peb mus saib tau qhov no tseem ceeb destination, Txawm li cas los, ntiaj teb no repercussions. Cov kab hauv qab yog tias kuv tsim yog dheev muaj nqis tsawg dua. Kuv competitors hauv Argentina thiab Brazil yuav tsum tau qhuas lawv hmoov zoo.

Dab tsi yuav tag kis? Tsis muaj leej twg paub. Hnub no, Txawm li cas los, txaus: Kuv ua liaj ua teb ua teb yog tam sim no nyob rau hauv siege, held hostage by a trade war that my neighbors and I never wanted. Yet US Trade Ambassador Robert Lighthizer says we can’t worry about me, it is the big picture that is important. All I can say to him is that the financial bullets are real, thiab lawv ntaus tej yam tiag rau peb ua liaj/teb.

Nco ntsoov, President Trump isn’t doing anything he said he wouldn’t do. Nws tau tham tawv ntawm pauv los ntawm lub caij nws tshaj tawm nws candidacy. Kuv txaus siab nws kev xaiv tsa, Tab sis kuj harbored sib sib zog nqus reservations txog nws txheej txheem luam. Tam sim no kuv ntshai tuaj rau txiv hmab txiv ntoo.

My hope is that the president will make good on the promise that he’s a master negotiator. Perhaps he’ll bargain his way out this mess. Muaj ntau lub tariffs tshiab tsis tau coj nyhuv. They’ve already shaken markets and taken an economic toll, tab sis lawv muaj ntshai heev txawm realities. Kab tias ib kab ntawm cov khoom bargaining yuav cheb tsev tam sim ntawd.

Yet I’m troubled by the possibility that the opposite will happen. Cov pauv tsov rog yuav escalate, Nrog tariffs ntxiv kom txhob cuam tshuam txog cov khoom thiab kev pab cuam ntawm lub teb chaws As Mes Lis Kas thiab Suav teb, driving down my farm’s income ever further.

Then there’s NAFTA. We’re in what could be the final stages of renegotiating America’s most important trade agreement—and it’s still possible for the whole thing to collapse. I don’t want to contemplate that possibility. Yog peb tawm Nafta, tsi yuav devastate tag nrho cov American agriculture, txawm muaj dab tsi tshwm sim nyob rau hauv peb pauv tsov rog nrog Suav teb.

Ib pliag, Kuv yog optimistic txog lub neej yav tom ntej ntawm ua liaj ua teb. Txawm tias cov nqi hauv hnav tau tsis muaj, tej yam uas twb nrhiav tau, Raws li cov nyiaj ua se tau kho dua tshiab coj mus ib ntus boom hauv lub lag luam Tshuag, Ntxawg ntxawg xyoo tsis ntev los no tau vanished, thiab tshiab yees tseem roj innovation.

Now I’m worried. Farmers have said it before and I’ll say it again: There’s no winning a trade war, cov mos txwv no tiag.

Khaub thuas no thawj zaug nyob Tim 4 Lub toj.