The Doha Round of WTO trade policy negotiations will soon celebrate its twelfth birthday. Optimists will find little to cheer about the round, and the need for further negotiations has become increasingly urgent. Iraila 8 edizioaren inprimaketa Ekonomialaria pointed out that increased trade and increased economic growth go hand in hand. The world needs more economic growth; beraz, merkataritza negoziazio gehiago behar ditu merkataritza handitzeko hazkunde ekonomiko horretan laguntzeko.
Salgaien merkataritza globalak a 12 ehunekoak beherakada izan zuen atzeraldiaren muinean 2009 eta berreskurapen handia izan zuen 13.8 ehuneko 2010. Trade increased another 5.0 ehuneko 2011, baina azpitik 1991-2011 batez besteko hazkunde tasa 5.4 ehuneko. Trade growth is expected to slip to 3.7 ehuneko 2012.
Pascal Lamy MMEko zuzendari nagusiak esan zuen uztailaren amaieran MMEren Kontseilu Nagusiaren bileran, “we need to change gears at various levels so as to ensure that we use our time in the most efficient manner possible.” The Ekonomialaria position is that Lamy should get a new bicycle by closing the Doha Round and including the best provisions of that round in a new Global Recovery Round. Along with that change the ‘single undertaking’ rule of the Doha Round and previous GATT rounds that ‘nothing is agreed until everything is agreed’ should be scrapped. That worked in 1947 rekin 23 kideak, baina ez du orain 157 kideak.
Talks would be broken into smaller segments and allowed to advance at varying speeds based on the negotiators interest in the issues. Negotiations would be open and countries would choose which negotiations to participate in based on their interests, but the ‘most-favored nation’ principle would still apply. Any tariff agreement made by a small group would apply to all WTO members, even if they did not reciprocate. If a country desired to protect an industry that action would not prevent major producers and users from other countries lowering tariffs to gain the advantages of trade and extend those benefits to others.
Idazleak Ekonomialaria editoriala fabrikazioan eta zerbitzuetan zentratuko litzateke lehenik, kontua dutelako, hurrenez hurren, for 55 ehunekoa eta 20 percent of trade. While tariffs on manufactured products have been lowered, herrialde batzuek tarifa nahiko altuak mantentzen dituzte, beste batzuek tarifa txikiak dituzte, baina handitu litezkeen mugatutako tarifa altuak, and almost all have some manufactured items with high tariffs. Supply chains integrated across national borders would gain by allowing countries to specialize in certain components. Services have much work that needs to be done to open markets.
Agriculture would be left to advance at a slower pace. That would be a suboptimal outcome for agriculture, baina gisa Ekonomialaria noted “an industry that makes up only 7% of world trade cannot hold everything else hostage.” U.S. agriculture has supported the ‘single undertaking’ in negotiations because of concerns that they would be left out due to domestic policy pushbacks. Those were valid concerns, but the result has been no reforms in manufacturing trade that would improve economic growth and increase demand for food. Agricultural trade negotiators would be relieved of the need to address the high tariffs of countries like India and Japan that have stalled past agricultural talks.
The Ekonomialaria suggested that when G20 finance ministers meet in Mexico City this November they ask the WTO’s Mr. Lamy to formally launch the Global Recovery Round. It would be finished by the time of the ninth WTO’s Ministerial Conference in Bali, Indonesia in December 2013. A year sounds like a short time to work out agreements, baina hamabi urtez hitz egiten egon ondoren merkataritza gaiei buruzko sekretu gutxi dago, except for the bottom line position countries will take. Working on issues by industry or a segment of an industry will remove the incentive to withhold the final offer until all offers from all the other industries are supposedly on the table.
Perspective on the timing issue is important. The Uruguay Round Agreement was completed in 1993 and came into force in January 1995. The world economy has changed radically since 1995. Agreements approved in December 2013 seguruenik urtarrilean sartuko litzateke indarrean 2015; betea 20 years after the last agreement took effect. Bilateral and regional free trade agreements (FTA) merkataritza askeagoaren mugimendua mantendu dute azkenean 15 years and will continue to expand without a new WTO round. Urtarrilean 2012 MMEk jaso zuen 511 merkataritza askeko eskualdeko akordioaren jakinarazpenak (ondasunak eta zerbitzuak bereizita zenbatuz) eta 319 indarrean zeuden. A Global Recovery Round would incorporate into WTO rules what has been learned from FTAs.
The Ekonomialaria editorial mentioned in passing that cutting red tape would boost trade. That is usually referred to as trade facilitation – the streamlining of paper work and time as products move though the exporting and importing process. It was part of the July 2004 work program adopted by the WTO General Council and has a negotiating group. The World Bank Doing Business report in 2010 aurkitu zuten salgaien zama normalizatua esportatzeak hartzen zuela 6 egun AEBetan, Kanadak behar zuen 7 egunak, Mexikon 12 egunak, Brasil 13 egunak, Txina 21 egunak, Hegoafrika 30 egunak eta Errusia 36 egunak. The cost of trade can be reduced and the process speeded up without harming the integrity of the process and often improving it. This work should be included in the Global Recovery Round to the benefit of all trade.
Director General Lamy has been tracking the imposition of new import restrictions since the current economic crisis began. Beginning in October 2008, murrizketak jarri direla kalkulatzen du 2.9 munduko inportazioen ehunekoa eta 3.8 percent of imports by the G20 group of largest economies. He found a recent shift in trade distorting policies, “The more recent wave of trade restrictions seems no longer to be aimed at combating the temporary effects of the global crisis, baizik eta berreskurapena suspertzen saiatzea industria planifikazio nazionalaren bidez, which is an altogether longer-term affair.” Governments are pursuing policies of the past that reduce economic efficiencies and retard trade growth and economic growth.
Garaia da Dohako txanda atseden hartzeko eta benetako txanda hasteko, Mr. jaunak babesten duen protekzionismoa konpentsatzeko. Lamy correctly identified. The Economist’s approach has been discussed before and is worth trying unless someone has other options. Time is critical and the Bali ministerial looks like a good target for completion.
Ross Korves Ekonomia Politiken Analista da Truth About Trade-rekin & Teknologia