USDA’s recent forecast for U.S. Agrarexporte für das Geschäftsjahr (FY) 2013 is a record $145.0 Milliarde, $9.2 billion above FY 2012 Ausfuhr. Imports are also forecasted at a record large $115.0 Milliarden in FY 2013, up from FY 2012’s imports of $103.4 Milliarde. The trade surplus would be $30.0 Milliarde, runter von $32.4 Milliarden in FY 2012.
While the total export estimate shows an increase, wide differences are occurring in the details by commodity class. Horticultural products have the largest growth and account for $3.4 Milliarden der $9.2 billion increase. Horticultural product exports were $20.8 Milliarden in FY 2008 und $20.6 Milliarden in FY 2009 and grew rapidly to $28.6 Milliarden in FY 2012 and are expected to be $32.0 Milliarden in FY 2013.
Wheat exports account for another $3.2 billion of the increase in exports going from $8.4 Milliarden in FY 2012 zu $11.6 Milliarden in FY 2013, but short of the FY 2008 high of $12.3 Milliarde. Oil seeds and products account for $2.8 billion of the increase, with soybeans increasing by $2.6 Milliarde, both to record highs, beziehungsweise, beim $31.4 Milliarden und $22.5 Milliarde. Sugar and tropical products exports are expected to be up $1.1 Milliarden zu $7.3 Milliarde, also a record high. Rice exports in FY 2013 are up $0.1 Milliarden zu $2.1 Milliarde.
Coarse grains exports are expected to be down $0.1 billion dollars in FY 2013 zu $11.6 Milliarde, with corn down $0.5 Milliarden zu $10.7 Milliarde. Both are well off their FY 2008 highs of $15.8 Milliarden und $14.0 Milliarde, beziehungsweise. Vieh, poultry and dairy were steady at $29.8 billion in both years, a record high.
President Obama set a goal in 2010 of doubling all U.S. exports by 2015 using 2009 as a base year. Agricultural exports were $96.3 Milliarden in FY 2009. By that comparison, US-. agricultural exports in FY 2013 will be up by $48.7 Milliarde, 50.6 percent over the four year or an average growth rate of 12.7 Prozent pro Jahr. But U.S. exports were down in value and volume in FY 2009 due to the worldwide economic recession. Exporte waren $114.9 Milliarden in FY 2008, a record year at that time, and recovered in FY 2010 zu $108.6 billion before setting the current record in FY 2011 beim $137.4 Milliarde. Compared to exports of $114.9 Milliarden in FY 2008, exports in FY 2013 will up $30.1 billion in value, ein 26.2 per cent increase, an average growth rate of 5.2 Prozent pro Jahr.
Measuring exports by dollar value is a good way of measuring exports across the agricultural industry, but growth in dollar value is produced by a combination of volume and per unit value. USDA releases as part of the quarterly outlook for trade the volume of exports for some commodities. Measuring from the high exports of FY 2008, US-. corn exports in FY 2013 forecasted at 31.0 Millionen Tonnen (MMT) would be down 48.8 Prozent von der 60.6 MMT shipped in FY 2008 compared to a 35.0 percent decline measured against FY 2009 Ausfuhr. Wheat export volume is expected to be 31.6 MMT in FY 2013, Nieder 3.8 Prozent von der 32.8 MMT shipped in FY 2008, aber nach oben 40.2 Prozent von der 22.5 MMT shipped in FY 2009.
Sojabohnen, meal and oil show a completely different picture. Exports increased in FY 2009 over FY 2008 and set a record again in FY 2010 beim 53.2 MMT. The projected exports in FY 2013 von 44.3 MMT would be up 9.4 Prozent aus dem Geschäftsjahr 2008 und 1.5 Prozent aus dem Geschäftsjahr 2009, but down 16.8 Prozent aus dem Geschäftsjahr 2010. Cotton exports of 2.5 MMT in FY 2013 wird unten sein 8.7 Prozent aus dem Geschäftsjahr 2009 und 15.5 Prozent aus dem Geschäftsjahr 2008 and down 17.4 percent from the record of 3.026 MMT set in FY 2011.
The volume of meat exports is similar to soybeans and products with peaks in FY 2010 or FY 2011. Beef and veal exports for FY 2013 will be up 28.8 Prozent aus dem Geschäftsjahr 2009 und 27.4 Prozent aus dem Geschäftsjahr 2008, but down 12.9 Prozent aus dem Geschäftsjahr 2011. Export volume of chicken broiler meat in FY 2013 is expected to be up 3.0 Prozent aus dem Geschäftsjahr 2009 and FY 2008 and down 3.0 percent from last year’s record. Pork is a little different with export volume in FY 2013 estimated to be up 30.3 Prozent aus dem Geschäftsjahr 2009 und 18.1 Prozent aus dem Geschäftsjahr 2008, and even with last year’s record of 1.8 MMT.
The total volume of exports of the major bulk commodities (Körner, Ölsaaten, Baumwolle, meat and unmanufactured tobacco) for FY 2013 is estimated to be 108.2 MMT. That will be 6.1 percent below the FY 2009 Niveau von 115.3 MMT und 22.1 percent below the FY 2008 Niveau von 138.9 MMT. The recent yearly high was 131.1 MMT in FY 2011. The largest factor in that decline is the almost 50 percent drop in corn exports from 60.6 MMT in FY 2008 zu 31.0 MMT in FY 2013. With corn excluded the major bulk exports are down from 78.3 MMT in FY 2008 zu 77.3 MMT FY 2013.
The per ton value of exports can be calculated by dividing the value of exports by the volume of exports for those commodities where USDA reports both value and volume. Wheat value per ton exported was roughly the same in FY 2008 and FY 2013 beim $370 pro Tonne (MT), but much lower in FY 2009 beim $265 MT. Corn values are nearly 50 percent higher in FY 2013 beim $345 per MT compared to $231 per MT in FY 2008 und 77 percent higher than the FY 2009 price of $195 MT. Soybean values are about 30 percent higher for FY 2013 beim $615 per MT over $472 per MT in FY 2008 und 56 percent higher than the $395 per MT in FY 2009. Cotton export values are expected to be $1840 per MT in FY 2013, oben 14 Prozent aus dem Geschäftsjahr 2008 und 47 Prozent aus dem Geschäftsjahr 2009, but down 37 percent from the high in FY 2011.
The per ton value of beef exports in FY 2013 are expected to be up about 40 percent over FY 2008 and FY 2009, while pork value per ton will be up about 21 percent and chicken broiler meat up 16 Prozent.
The variation in total value of U.S. agricultural exports has historically been driven by grain and oilseed prices within an overall trend of increasing volumes of exports. Drought driven crop prices will decline as production returns to normal and meat prices will follow with some lag time. Export volume growth is much more uncertain. Return to normal weather should increase available supplies, but market demand, supplies from other producers and U.S. competitiveness will dictate the volume and price of U.S. Ausfuhr.
Ross Korves ist eine Wirtschaftspolitik Analyst mit Wahrheit über Handel & Technologie (www.truthabouttrade.org).