有机农业无法养活世界

Woody Allen won an Oscar for the screenplay to his film Midnight in Paris on Sunday night, but he didn’t collect his golden statue in person. He’s semi-famous for not attending the Academy Awards, which is odd because he also once said that 80 percent of success is just showing up.

There’s a lot of wisdom in that statement, but let’s face it: 80 percent usually isn’t good enough. The rest of your success depends on more than showing up. After you show up, you have to perform.

That’s why a new study in a scientific journal has so much to teach about food security. If we’re going to succeed in feeding a global population of billions in the 21st century- one of the greatest challenges of our time – we’re going to need every tool and technology available so farmers around the world can choose what will work best on their farm. This must include new farming technologies. Farmers cannot be limited to the methods that were used in the past.

研究人员发现了一个重要事实: Organic agriculture can’t feed the world.

“Our results show that organic yields of individual crops are on average 80 常规产量的百分比,” write Tomek de Ponti, 伯特·赖克, å’Œ Matin K. 荷兰瓦赫宁根大学的 van Ittersum, 在最新一期的农业系统, 同行评审的学术出版物. 他们检查了 362 比较有机和传统作物产量的研究, creating what they call a “meta-dataset.” That’s a fancy way of saying their work was comprehensive.

有机食品仅占食品总产量的一小部分, 但最近销售量大增 15 年份. 虽然它们可能很贵, 许多消费者表达了对它们的偏好, 所以农民满足了需求. 机会即将增加, following the announcement in February that the United States and European Union will accept each other’s organic standards.

因此，有机农业仍将是农业产业的一个健康子行业.

But it won’t ever be more than this. It can’t ever be more than this if we’re serious about feeding the world.

大多数分析家认为，我们必须将粮食产量翻一番 2050, 满足不断增长的人口的需求以及发展中国家只想吃得更好的人们的需求.

不幸, we don’t have an unlimited supply of farmland. 我们必须从我们已经耕种的土地上获得更多. 这意味着不仅要改善传统的耕作方式, 但利用所有可用的技术, 包括生物技术, 并充分利用其承诺，以提高产量.

农民现在正在这样做: 几乎 17 百万人种植转基因作物, 90 其中百分比是小农, 发展中国家资源贫乏的农民, 根据国际农业生物技术应用服务组织 (Ishaaa). 在 2011, 转基因作物几乎占 400 万亩农田, 向上 8 现在确切知道美国去年出口了多少还为时过早.

If we’re to meet the food objectives of 2050, we’ll need to see growth like this for years to come.

有机作物可能会继续在富裕国家的挑剔买家中找到市场, but their yields won’t meet the needs of the world: 80 percent just won’t cut it.

在一场篮球比赛中, 如果你得分 80 与你的对手一样多的分数, 你在球场上被吹走了, 100 至 80. That’s not March Madness; it’s March Badness.

在学校, 80 百分比通常获得 B 级, 这充其量是马马虎虎，非常接近C-plus, 正朝着不太好的方向发展. 这意味着你可能应该做更多的功课.

如果你来上班 80 百分比的时间, 你的老板会解雇你. 如果你的老板付钱给你 80 你工资的百分比, you’ll quit your job–because it just isn’t good enough.

产量 80 百分比也太短了. 这意味着每五餐不吃一顿, 或世界上五分之一的人没有获得生存所需的食物.

任何志愿者? I didn’t think so.

有机食品是一种选择. 那些有能力选择它的人完全有权这样做. 农民有权提供这些消费者想要的东西.

But let’s also recognize that it’s a luxury, 我们的需求很紧迫: 再来点吃的, 更好的技术, 以及对必须做什么的广泛认识.

Showing up isn’t good enough.

Carol Keizer 在堪萨斯州拥有并经营牛饲养业务, 内布拉斯加州和伊利诺伊州. 她是贸易的真相 & 技术委员会成员 (www.truthabouttrade.org)