全球大豆市場和美國. 乾旱

估計 14.1 美國下降百分比. 與去年相比，今年的大豆產量並未像去年一樣受到關注。 13.2 美國下降百分比. 玉米生產和 30.6 俄羅斯小麥產量下降百分比. The National Agricultural Statistics Service of USDA in mid-September estimated soybean production this year at 2.63 十億蒲式耳, 從下 3.06 去年十億蒲式耳. Global oilseed markets will need to ration soybean supplies for the next 12 幾個月，市場將在此過程中保持穩定.

去年的短季作物將對出口市場產生影響 55.6 美國生產的大豆的百分比. 出口為整個大豆, meal and oil. This compares to less than 20 在中美的百分比. 玉米出口, 包括乙醇生產的副產品, 和 40 百分比 2011 Russian wheat crop. China purchased 62.8 在中美的百分比. 去年出口的大豆和 63.9 佔全球大豆出口的百分比 90.8 萬噸 (MMT).

中美. soybean use and ending stocks estimates by the World Agricultural Outlook Board of USDA indicate how tight the market situation will be for this marketing year. The end of marketing year carryover on August 31, 2013 預計在 115 萬蒲式耳, a nine-year low and considered by some analysts to be the minimum needed in the supply chain. To achieve this, 董事會相信美國. 農場價格必須平均 $15-17 每蒲式耳, 從 $12.45 去年每蒲式耳和 $11.30 per bushel in 2010/11. Final production estimates may be slightly higher due to helpful late season rains and add to expected use.

少量大豆用作全豆, with most crushed for their oil and meal content. The meal is used for animal and poultry feed and the oil mostly used for human consumption. The Board projects that 1.5 美國將壓碎十億蒲式耳, 57.0 產量百分比 1.705 去年十億蒲式耳. 另一個 1.055 十億蒲式耳將出口到其他國家, 40.1 產量百分比 1.36 去年有十億蒲式耳， 1.5 billion bushels in 2010/11. Market forces will ultimately decide how much is crushed and exported, 但實際供應將限制在國內和出口市場的使用.

除了出口大豆, 1.2 十億磅大豆油將從美國出口, 7.0 生產的百分比, 和 6.8 豆粕MMT, 19.0 生產的百分比. Many smaller countries do not have large markets to justify a soybean crushing plant and rely on oil and meal from other countries.

儘管美國短缺. 大豆產量, 該銷售年度的全球植物油產量由外國農業服務局預測 (FAS) 美國農業部的數據與去年相比幾乎沒有變化 154.3 MMT和豆油產量將維持不變 42.3 MMT. 中美. soybean oil is a small part of a diversified vegetable oil market where market forces determine use and price. Palm oil production is expected to expand from 50.0 去年MMT 52.3 MMT this year and offset declines of some of the minor oilseeds. Total vegetable oil exports are projected to increase from 63.2 MMT在 2011/12 至 64.3 今年MMT, 而豆油出口保持不變 8.4 MMT. Palm oil accounts for almost two-thirds of exports of vegetable oil and is expected to increase from 38.8 去年MMT 40.3 今年MMT. End-of-year stocks of all vegetable oils will decline from 14.2 MMT到 11.5 MMT, 而大豆油庫存從 3.4 MMT到 2.2 MMT.

油籽粉市場以豆粕為主，全球豆粕產量為 179.1 MMT佔整個油料粕市場的 264.2 MMT. Soybeans have a higher meal to oil ratio than the other oilseeds. Oilseed meal exports are expected to remain unchanged at 79.9 MMT, 豆粕出口增至 60.3 今年MMT與 59.1 去年MMT. Ending stocks of oilseed meals are likely to decline from 11.2 去年MMT 8.8 今年MMT, 其中豆粕佔了大部分， 9.2 MMT到 7.4 MMT.

This relatively optimistic global supply picture for soybean products and total vegetable oils and oilseed meals heavily depends on production in South America – Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay. As summer crops are being harvested in North America, 他們將在未來的南美種植 2-3 個月. 在 2009/10 å’Œ 2010/11 兩個生長地區的美國收成都比較好. 生產 91.4 MMTå’Œ 90.6 MMT, 分別, 和南美國家 130.9 MMTå’Œ 132.9 MMT. 在 2011/12 美國. 產量下降了 7.4 MMT到 83.2 MMT, while the three South American countries’ production fell 21.4 MMT到 111.5 MMT. As we already know, 在 2012/13 美國. 莊稼再次下降 11.5 MMT到 71.7 MMT. The weather patterns are expected to be much more favorable in South America and FAS has projected record large production of 144.1 MMT.

Market participants are keeping one eye on the size of the North American crops now being harvested and how quickly those supplies are moving through supply chains and the other eye on conditions in South America as crops are being planting to judge the large crop expectations. Government officials should be watching the same factors to anticipate likely supplies, 價格和可能出現的問題.

大豆市場價格上漲已經告訴用戶供應量比往年少. Soybean meal supplies may have a larger impact on prices since they are a larger share of the total oilseed meal supplies, but food uses of vegetable oils may be more price inelastic. Over the last ten years consumption of vegetable oils and oilseed meals has increased every year, 加油 65 ％和吃飯 45 百分. With China’s huge soybean purchases, 這將是關鍵角色. 除非南美收成達到這些早期預期, maintaining consumption is not possible. Even if the crop is record large, 但由於天氣原因收割較晚, 價格將可能上升為緩慢使用，直到確定市場使用量減少為止，以保持管道供應，直到南美作物進入市場為止.

Harvest starts in South America sometime in February depending when the first crops are planted. Until then the only significant supplies of oilseeds will come from North America and the Black Sea region. Markets are sorting out the buyers and will remain volatile until demand and supply adjustments are made.

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