China’s Number One Central Document for 2014

For the twelfth year in a row the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese government’s State Council jointly issued the No. 1 中央文件 2014 that sets the country’s policy priorities for the year focused on rural reforms. The goals are to modernize and industrialize Chinese agricultural production and facilitate the steady movement of rural people to cities, 在保護的同時 the nation’s food security.

The Communist Party came to power with the support of the rural peasants and is well aware that sovereignty in China is most often decided by the management of the countryside rather than the cities as is true in many other countries. Most forecasts of the workforce in China show it declining by 3-5 百分之 2050. Factory job in the cities will be filled by attracting rural people who are more than willing to abandon rural life. These changes need to occur without disrupting China’s continued expansion of food production.

The government’s concern about food production is well founded. 據海外農業局的估計 (FAS) 美國農業部, 中國是小麥最大消費國 126 萬噸 (MMT) 每年, 關於 18 世界消費量的百分比. It is the second largest producer at 122 MMT 是一個小的淨進口商, 包含, 直到最近, lower-priced feed wheat as a substitute for higher-priced corn. China is also the world’s largest consumer of rice at 146 MMT, 31 佔全球消費的百分比, 和最大的生產商 142 MMT. China is the second largest consumer of corn, 在美國之後, 在 227 每年MMT, ç”± 55 過去五年中每年 MMT; with most of the increase for livestock feed. This year’s corn harvest was above trend at 223 MMT. Corn imports have been increasing in recent years and may reach 10 MMT 今年隨著庫存的重建.

This year’s number one document reinforced China’s ‘basic grain self-sufficiency’ within its longstanding 95-percent food self-sufficiency target. Within that overall framework, the document does state that use of overseas markets will increase and allow an ‘appropriate’ amount of imports. Some foreign analysts thought the self-sufficiency goal would be relaxed. Chinese military strategists have warned that Western nations could use grain imports to undermine its food security and national security.

Chinese soybean imports are often assumed to be the pattern that could be repeated for corn. Fifteen years ago, 中國進口 10 MMT of soybeans per year. FAS projects that this year China will import 69 MMT. Domestic production has decline from 15 MMT 每年到 12 MMT per year as government planners decided to import soybeans to process into soybean meal for livestock and poultry feed and soybean oil for human consumption. China has been able to achieve its grain self-sufficiency goals partly by importing soybeans to free up land to produce grain and to increase feed efficiency in their livestock and poultry industries. China will not be importing corn at the current level for soybeans.

中國的目標是至少保持 120 百萬公頃 (296 百萬英畝) in farming. That has been a challenge given the need to increase the amount of land in housing and industrial development. Much was made of a December 2013 國土資源部報告披露， 3.3 百萬公頃 (8.0 百萬英畝) were too polluted to produce crops. Total arable land declined by 0.2 之間的百分比 2006 和 2009, 0.7 百萬英畝.

除了直接食用穀物, 中國增加了乳製品產量, livestock meat and poultry meat. China produces about 54 每年豬肉 MMT, 全球供應量的一半, 和進口約 750,000 公噸. It produces over 13 MMT of broiler chicken meat per year and exports and imports small quantities. China also has about 9 百萬頭奶牛以及對液態奶和乳製品的需求不斷增長.

數以億計的農民在小戶型土地上耕作，並將剩餘的糧食賣給城市市場, some consolidation at that level would free up workers to migrate to non-farm jobs. Consolidation is already underway in dairy and pork production and has led to increased productivity and total output. Doing that in grain production is a much larger challenge. Some consolidation appears to have occurred in areas were farms have traditional been larger than subsistence farms.

農村土地改革, 包括土地所有權轉讓, are needed to allow farms to consolidate to use equipment efficiently and produce the same amount or greater output with less labor input. These rural land reforms need to coincide with urban land market reforms and changes in the household registration system that has split the country into rural and urban areas and bars rural residents from tapping into urban social services.

Any substantial changes in production will require changes for input suppliers and the marketing chain. These changes may allow the adoption of new technologies that will increase productivity. Yields for crops like corn lag behind other majors producing countries and adopting biotechnology and other technology may give them a one-time yield bump.

The Chinese strategists are correct in thinking that this transition will have to be managed internally with as few disruptions as possible. China is already a major importer of agricultural products from the U.S. 和其他出口商, 並且仍然可以購買更多的產品, 但出口市場無法取代轉型時期中國生產的重大短缺.

The Chinese government should move ahead and begin the transitions. It will require simultaneous changes in many moving parts, but waiting longer will make the transition harder as market participants make more long-term investments that may need to be undone under a new system. Global markets have just come through several years of lower carryover grain supplies and higher market prices. We have now entered a period when supplies have again over taken demand. Supplies may be large for a few years before lower market prices drive out excess production capacity. Now is the time globally for reforms in China.

羅斯Korves是貿易和經濟政策分析師真相關於貿易 & 技術 (www.truthabouttrade.org). 跟著我們: @TruthAboutTrade上 推特 | 真相關於貿易 & 科技上 Facebook的.