The Doha Round of WTO trade policy negotiations will soon celebrate its twelfth birthday. Optimists will find little to cheer about the round, and the need for further negotiations has become increasingly urgent. Tháng chÃn 8 ấn bản in của Nhà kinh tế há»c pointed out that increased trade and increased economic growth go hand in hand. The world needs more economic growth; do đó nó cần các cuá»™c Ä‘Ã m phán thÆ°Æ¡ng mại hÆ¡n nữa để tăng cÆ°á»ng thÆ°Æ¡ng mại nhằm há»— trợ cho sá»± tăng trưởng kinh tế đó.
Thương mại hà ng hóa toà n cầu bị ảnh hưởng 12 phần trăm giảm trong trung tâm của cuộc suy thoái ở 2009 và đã phục hồi mạnh mẽ 13.8 phần trăm trong 2010. Trade increased another 5.0 phần trăm trong 2011, nhưng bên dưới 1991-2011 tốc độ tăng trưởng trung bình của 5.4 phần trăm. Trade growth is expected to slip to 3.7 phần trăm trong 2012.
Tổng giám đốc WTO Pascal Lamy cho biết tại cuá»™c há»p cuối tháng 7 của Äại há»™i đồng WTO rằng, “we need to change gears at various levels so as to ensure that we use our time in the most efficient manner possible.” The Nhà kinh tế há»c position is that Lamy should get a new bicycle by closing the Doha Round and including the best provisions of that round in a new Global Recovery Round. Along with that change the ‘single undertaking’ rule of the Doha Round and previous GATT rounds that ‘nothing is agreed until everything is agreed’ should be scrapped. That worked in 1947 vá»›i 23 các thà nh viên, nhÆ°ng không phải bây giá» vá»›i 157 các thà nh viên.
Talks would be broken into smaller segments and allowed to advance at varying speeds based on the negotiators interest in the issues. Negotiations would be open and countries would choose which negotiations to participate in based on their interests, but the ‘most-favored nation’ principle would still apply. Any tariff agreement made by a small group would apply to all WTO members, even if they did not reciprocate. If a country desired to protect an industry that action would not prevent major producers and users from other countries lowering tariffs to gain the advantages of trade and extend those benefits to others.
Các tác giả của Nhà kinh tế há»c bà i xã luáºn sẽ táºp trung đầu tiên và o sản xuất và dịch vụ vì chúng giải thÃch, tÆ°Æ¡ng ứng, vì 55 phần trăm và 20 percent of trade. While tariffs on manufactured products have been lowered, má»™t số quốc gia duy trì mức thuế tÆ°Æ¡ng đối cao, những ngÆ°á»i khác có mức thuế áp dụng thấp, nhÆ°ng mức thuế rà ng buá»™c cao có thể được tăng lên, and almost all have some manufactured items with high tariffs. Supply chains integrated across national borders would gain by allowing countries to specialize in certain components. Services have much work that needs to be done to open markets.
Agriculture would be left to advance at a slower pace. That would be a suboptimal outcome for agriculture, nhÆ°ng nhÆ° là Nhà kinh tế há»c noted “an industry that makes up only 7% of world trade cannot hold everything else hostage.” U.S. agriculture has supported the ‘single undertaking’ in negotiations because of concerns that they would be left out due to domestic policy pushbacks. Those were valid concerns, but the result has been no reforms in manufacturing trade that would improve economic growth and increase demand for food. Agricultural trade negotiators would be relieved of the need to address the high tariffs of countries like India and Japan that have stalled past agricultural talks.
Các Nhà kinh tế há»c suggested that when G20 finance ministers meet in Mexico City this November they ask the WTO’s Mr. Lamy to formally launch the Global Recovery Round. It would be finished by the time of the ninth WTO’s Ministerial Conference in Bali, Indonesia in December 2013. A year sounds like a short time to work out agreements, nhÆ°ng sau mÆ°á»i hai năm nói chuyện, có rất Ãt bà máºt vá» các vấn Ä‘á» thÆ°Æ¡ng mại, except for the bottom line position countries will take. Working on issues by industry or a segment of an industry will remove the incentive to withhold the final offer until all offers from all the other industries are supposedly on the table.
Perspective on the timing issue is important. The Uruguay Round Agreement was completed in 1993 and came into force in January 1995. The world economy has changed radically since 1995. Agreements approved in December 2013 có thể sẽ có hiệu lá»±c và o tháng Giêng 2015; má»™t đầy đủ 20 years after the last agreement took effect. Bilateral and regional free trade agreements (FTA) đã duy trì phong trà o thÆ°Æ¡ng mại tá»± do hÆ¡n trong thá»i gian qua 15 years and will continue to expand without a new WTO round. Trong tháng Má»™t 2012 WTO đã nháºn được 511 thông báo vá» hiệp định thÆ°Æ¡ng mại tá»± do khu vá»±c (đếm hà ng hóa và dịch vụ má»™t cách riêng biệt) và 319 có hiệu lá»±c. A Global Recovery Round would incorporate into WTO rules what has been learned from FTAs.
Các Nhà kinh tế há»c editorial mentioned in passing that cutting red tape would boost trade. That is usually referred to as trade facilitation – the streamlining of paper work and time as products move though the exporting and importing process. It was part of the July 2004 work program adopted by the WTO General Council and has a negotiating group. The World Bank Doing Business report in 2010 nháºn thấy rằng việc xuất khẩu má»™t loại hà ng hoá tiêu chuẩn hoá đã mất 6 những ngà y ở Mỹ, Canada cần 7 ngà y, Mexico 12 ngà y, Brazil 13 ngà y, Trung Quốc 21 ngà y, Nam Phi 30 ngà y và Nga 36 ngà y. The cost of trade can be reduced and the process speeded up without harming the integrity of the process and often improving it. This work should be included in the Global Recovery Round to the benefit of all trade.
Director General Lamy has been tracking the imposition of new import restrictions since the current economic crisis began. Beginning in October 2008, ông Æ°á»›c tÃnh rằng các hạn chế đã được đặt ra 2.9 phần trăm nháºp khẩu thế giá»›i và 3.8 percent of imports by the G20 group of largest economies. He found a recent shift in trade distorting policies, “The more recent wave of trade restrictions seems no longer to be aimed at combating the temporary effects of the global crisis, mà là cố gắng kÃch thÃch sá»± phục hồi thông qua quy hoạch công nghiệp quốc gia, which is an altogether longer-term affair.” Governments are pursuing policies of the past that reduce economic efficiencies and retard trade growth and economic growth.
Äã đến lúc đặt Vòng Ä‘Ã m phán Doha nghỉ ngÆ¡i và bắt đầu má»™t vòng thá»±c sá»± để bù đắp chủ nghÄ©a bảo há»™ Ä‘ang lan rá»™ng mà Mr. Lamy correctly identified. Các Economist’s approach has been discussed before and is worth trying unless someone has other options. Time is critical and the Bali ministerial looks like a good target for completion.
Ross Korves là má»™t nhà phân tÃch chÃnh sách kinh tế vá»›i sá»± tháºt vá» thÆ°Æ¡ng mại & Công nghệ