Negociadores de los doce países de la Asociación Transpacífica (TPP) acuerdo comercial se ha tomado un descanso después de reunirse en Guam durante casi dos semanas a fines de mayo. Están esperando a los EE. UU.. Aprobación del Congreso de la Autoridad de Promoción Comercial (TPA) aceptar o rechazar un acuerdo final sin modificaciones, and for Japan to make a final offer on agricultural and automobile imports. Representatives of farmers and ranchers in agricultural exporting TPP countries, the Australian National Farmers Federation, la Federación Estadounidense de la Oficina Agrícola, la Alianza Canadiense para el Comercio Agroalimentario y los Agricultores Federados de Nueva Zelanda, aprovechó la oportunidad en Guam para reiterar su llamado a “meaningful and comprehensive market access that is extended equally to all participating countries.

Los cuatro grupos dijeron en un comunicado en mayo 19º, However, No se debe subestimar la importancia de un acuerdo beneficioso para la agricultura y los exportadores agroalimentarios.. Este tipo de trato solo puede llegar a través de términos acordados que liberalicen el comercio en toda la región del TPP y brinden resultados competitivos., transparente, plurilateral, non-discriminatory access. That means that any concession one country makes to another would be offered to all TPP countries. They did not demand the immediate elimination of all tariffs and non-tariff barriers. That was a goal several years ago when the group consisted of only five countries, pero se volvió cada vez más impráctico cuando por primera vez EE. UU.. joined the talks and then Japan. They continued to push for the longer term elimination of all tariff and non-tariff barriers.

The groups also called for the elimination of export subsidies and other policies that distort agricultural markets. According to the publication Dentro de nosotros. Comercio, los Estados Unidos. had agreed to the ban on agricultural export subsidies if other TPP partners dropped demands for new disciplines for export credit programs. A ban on export subsidies had been tentatively agreed to in earlier WTO talks.

Si todos los países del TPP acuerdan aranceles comunes y la eliminación de los subsidios a la exportación, these would be major steps forward to more agricultural trade among the twelve countries. It would also open markets for other countries, como Corea, that has indicated an interest in joining after negotiations are completed. Conversely, puede resultar un obstáculo para que China se una.

En guam, Canadá pareció participar más en las conversaciones sobre el acceso a los mercados para sus productos sensibles, incluyendo lácteos y aves de corral, según un informe de Dentro de nosotros. Comercio and other trading partners have become more specific in making market-opening requests to Canada. Some TPP countries had talked of excluding Canada from an agreement unless they made more ambitious market access offers on those sensitive agricultural products. Canadian agricultural exporters had been asking their government to remain part of the TPP talks and a recent analysis from the Canadian Pork Council reinforced that position.

Justo cuando los negociadores se volverán a encontrar es un tema abierto, but many details are yet to be filled in. The agricultural groups have agreed to move quickly by making the best offers apply to everyone and minimizing the internal difference. As the statement said, A comprehensive agreement would encourage regional supply chains with production and processing occurring where competitive advantages exist. Those countries with a comparative advantage in certain agricultural products could look at the whole TPP region as a market, no solo uno o dos países donde tenía el mayor poder de negociación o solo para unos pocos productos.

Consumers of imported agricultural products will also benefit. They will have more suppliers overall and more off-season suppliers looking to fill small gaps in supply. Supply shortages caused by weather or diseases could be filled by non-traditional suppliers throughout the region. Supply chains could increasingly be built around consumption points rather than production locations. Food importing countries could choose to join the completed TPP to adopt a set of import tariffs that are already established.

Many things could still go wrong in the talks. The four groups making the statement on agricultural trade are powerful in their countries, pero son solo grupos privados, not the governments setting policy positions. And the governments are listening to other groups, as they are supposed to do. In Canada for example, los exportadores que buscan un acuerdo se ven compensados ​​por los intereses lácteos y avícolas que defienden el statu quo.

Los Estados Unidos. House of Representatives has yet to announce plans to schedule a vote on the Senate-passed TPA. The lack of a scheduled vote probably means that the House Republican Leadership has yet to be assured of a majority vote for the bill. They will probably delay the vote until a yes majority is guaranteed.

Then the Japanese take center stage. Japanese and U.S. negotiators continued to meet in Guam and have probably met since then. Japan needs an agreement to move its industrial policy forward and the four agricultural exporters need a deal with Japan on agriculture. Prime Minister Abe remains the best hope for both of those. They will not release their final offer until TPA is passed. Mr. Abe puede haber resuelto su trato dentro de su partido o estar esperando que TPA pase para hacer su último impulso..

Una vez que el U.S. y Japón han publicado sus posiciones, the joint position of the four major TPP exporters becomes operational. Countries like Canada and the U.S. Tendrá que resolver sus diferencias internas y presentar planes finales..

Si todos los países están sustancialmente de acuerdo con los cuatro principales exportadores, the agriculture portion of the trade agreement could be worked out fairly quickly. If not, Un acuerdo podría llevar un tiempo mientras los países resuelven los problemas de forma bilateral..

Ross Korves es analista de política comercial y económica con verdad sobre Comercio & Tecnología (www.truthabouttrade.org). Síguenos: @TruthAboutTrade y @World_Farmers onTwitter| Verdad sobre el Comercio & Technology onFacebook.