U. preus d'exportació de cultius va caure com una roca mes passat, en els més de 5 per cent. Que és la immersió més ràpid que hem vist en set anys, Segons un informe emès el dimarts pel Departament de treball.

Xifres del govern són importants per tendències de comprensió, però encobrir un munt d'històries individuals.

Així deixi'm dir-te què han significat aquestes estadístiques exportació-preu per a la meva granja a Iowa, on creixen de blat de moro i la soja i criar porcs. O, per mirar-ho un altre camí, Deixi'm dir-li sobre instantània financera del meu granja.

We’re facing tariff turmoil in a time of abundance.

The price of corn has dropped 30 cents since June 1St. With a big crop coming, it is hard to quantify what is tariffs and what is Mother Nature and good farming practices.

Soybeans are a different matter. At the start of June, November soybeans were selling for about $10 per grapats. A month later, as China and Mexico imposed their retaliatory tariffs, they’d declined to $8.32 per grapats. D'agost 15, they were selling for just $8.08—for a plunge of nearly $2 in two months.

Maybe a number cruncher in green eyeshades can explain how much of this fall is due to tariffs and how much to farmers growing lots of soybeans. I say let’s just split the difference, calling it $1 for tariffs and $1 for a good crop growing in the field.

If that’s true, then it means soybean tariffs have cost me about $30,000 this summer.

That’s a lot of money—but I’m just getting started.

I also raise hogs. Ara mateix, I’m raising about 20,000.

Fa dos mesos, I could sell a 300-lb. hog for $180. Ahir, the best price I could get was half as much, només $90.

Una altra vegada, we’re confronting the twin problem of tariffs and overproduction—and for simplicity’s sake, with China’s tariffs on pork at 78.2 per cent i Mèxic a 20 per cent, let’s just split the difference once more and assume that I’m losing $45 per hog on account of the retaliatory tariffs.

Now it’s simple math, and it shows that the trade-war pork tariffs have cost me $900,000.

That’s a lot of bacon—and it’s a big problem for me, meva família, and my employees, as well as our entire industry.

Every farmer knows that some years are good and some years are bad. The rain falls or it doesn’t. We defeat weeds and pests or we don’t. We produce too much of one thing and not enough of another.

These environmental and economic factors are often beyond our control.

A trade war, No obstant això, is another thing. It’s not a natural disaster or an economic cycle. En canvi, it’s a man-made difficulty. The one we’re facing today is manufactured entirely in Washington, DC.

How long will this trade war last? Ningú sap. We hear that perhaps we’re on the verge of a new NAFTA, però el Congrés probablement no aconseguirà al voltant per considerar-lo fins al pròxim any a rebràs — i fins i tot llavors, no sabem si que s'aprovarà un acord.

Xina sembla disposat a sobresurten la guerra comercial per bastant una estona. Al Wall Street Journal informes que els Estats Units i la Xina aviat començarà "nivell inferior, exploratoris." Amb el progrés que, Qui necessita contratemps?

Les coses podrien aconseguir molt pitjor abans d'arribar fins i tot una mica millors. Cas en punt: La recent caiguda en moneda estrangera preus mitjans que u. exports are becoming more expensive, even without tariffs.

Add it all together, and you’ll understand why this farmer is turning into a pessimist about the future.

That’s my story—and one that you won’t hear from federal statistics.

I hope the trade negotiators are listening because the tariffs and abundance are upon us.

 

The column first appeared at The Hill on August 18.