My father always said that you can’t count on a harvest until it actually comes in—but I’m ready to announce that this year’s crop of pistachios, que ens va sacsejar solts al setembre, podria ser el millor que he vist en 20 anys de l'agricultura aquí a San Joaquin vall de Califòrnia.

Hem gaudit bon temps, with the proper amount of heat during the day and adequate chilling through the wintertime. Water is expensive, but we’re getting enough. I ara mateix, our trees are simply loaded with nuts.

So we’re ready to sell to the world.

Una collita s'espera de la collita de pistatxo a Califòrnia aquest any.

Our valley already supplies the U.S. market with virtually all of the pistachios it needs, and we’ve got lots left over. About half my harvest will go abroad.

The only problem is that our biggest export customer, Xina, només va colpejar un aranzel enorme el nostre producte: Els consumidors xinesos que vol comprar Califòrnia festucs ara haurà de pagar un impost de 40 per cent, as part of a retaliatory measure in an emerging trade war between their country and the United States.

La controvèrsia va començar a principis d'any, when President Trump imposed tariffs on imported steel and aluminum and then broadened the conflict by adding new duties on $50 milions de dòlars en productes xinesos. Tir de la Xina de tornada amb les seves pròpies mesures proteccionistes, and now my pistachio farm is caught in the crossfire of an unfortunate controversy.

The pistachio tariff essentially will drive us out of the Chinese market. There’s just no way around it. We can’t cut our prices sharply enough to make up the difference.

Que en part és el punt. The Chinese don’t want to collect revenue on tariffs as much as they want to shut down a business we’ve worked hard to build for more than a decade. La seva estratègia és crear dolor econòmic a Califòrnia, which they believe will turn into political pressure on the White House, forcing President Trump to rethink his hard line on trade.

I’m always against a trade war—but I’m also hopeful that China’s scheme won’t work out the way Beijing imagines. De fet, our immediate future looks bright.

Als Estats Units les exportacions de festucs més que ningú, gairebé 220,000 mètrica tones l'any passat. Nostre competidor més proper és a l'Iran, a sobre 144,000 mètrica tones. L'Iran, No obstant això, will struggle to satisfy China’s huge demand, Quins pics al voltant de l'any nou xinès, que en 2019 will take place on February 5.

That’s because this year Iran has suffered a crop disaster: Its pistachio production will plummet by as much as 75 per cent, a causa de meteorològics extrems, escassetat d'aigua, i salinització del sòl.

If the Iranians shift their limited output to China, we’ll sell our California pistachios to the customers they abandon. We’ll find new buyers in Europe, L'Índia, i en altres llocs.

Demand for our pistachios is strong. We grow the best in the world. We sold out last year’s crop and we’re well on our way to selling out this year’s bounty, even though the new tariff means that in recent weeks, we haven’t sold a single nut to China.

This is the message we’d like to everyone to hear: Els agricultors de Califòrnia pistatxo estan obertes per als negocis. Li venem a algú que vol provar la rosca de qualitat en el mercat.

La conclusió és que a curt termini, despite the trade war, we’ll be okay. The circumstances of pistachio production in 2018 are stacked in our favor.

My worry is what will happen over the long term. If the trade war grinds on and China’s pistachio tariff remains in place, the Chinese may yet hurt us in exactly the way they intend.

 

Quan els EUA i la Xina afluixar en les disputes comercials està encara per determinar.

Més aviat que tard, this trade war will have to stop. Even President Trump knows this, com que s'indica a l'abril, Quan va intentar calmar els nervis dels agricultors ansiós durant la guerra de comerç obertura salvos.

"Nosaltres ho farem fins a ells,", va dir. "Els pagesos serà millors del que mai eren. Prendrà una mica de temps per arribar-hi, però podria ser molt ràpida, fet."

Estic disposat a renunciar al president una mica de temps, but I do plan to hold him to his promise.

 

 

 

Nota – a version of this column first appeared at El turó de juliol 24.