Noves tarifes del president Trump en acer i alumini perjudicarà el meu granja.

Que molt era cert quan President Trump signa els documents d'imposar un impost de 25 per cent d'acer importat i un impost de 10 per cent sobre alumini importat. These tariffs will raise the price of farm machinery and almost certainly spark a trade war that no one can win—and especially not farmers like me, who depend on exports for our livelihood.

As if the stakes weren’t high enough already, President Trump raised them even higher when he linked the new tariffs to NAFTA renegotiations. While Mexico and Canada have been excluded for the time being from the broad tariffs, that exemption is contingent on the signing of a “new & fair NAFTA agreement”.

What’s the solution? Perhaps the president’s actions will encourage other countries to come to the negotiating table and compromise, permetent de béns i serveis a fluir a través de les fronteres amb menys interferències. Aquest és un objectiu en curs per als agricultors dels EUA: Més accés a mercats d'exportació.

L'optimista en mi diu que ens veurem aviat victòries concretes. Mai hem tingut una nova York streetfighter com President Trump al nostre costat. Potser va a ajudar-nos fer encara millor NAFTA i altres acords comercials.

La realista en mi, No obstant això, preocupacions sobre un resultat molt diferent.

Aquí al país de la granja, Aquestes tarifes fibló.

Que no és el seu propòsit. President Trump espera revifar l'u. steel and aluminum industries, which is a worthy goal. Yet any benefits the tariffs deliver to these sectors will be eclipsed by the unintended consequence of much broader damage to the rest of the economy.

We hardly need another problem in agriculture. At a time of low commodity prices—I grow corn and soybeans in Iowa—we’re already losing money. Now we’re probably going to lose even more.

The tariffs will injure farmers in two major ways.

Primer, they’ll increase the cost of machinery. The tariffs will force manufacturers to pay more for the raw materials that go into tractors, combines and pickups. This means that they’ll have to charge higher prices. Farmers who seek to replace old vehicles with new ones will experience sticker shock—and they’ll either fork over more money than they had budgeted or they’ll skip buying altogether.

Tal com succeeix, few of us were going to make big purchases this year, because of the low commodity prices. What would have been a bad year for farm-equipment manufacturers, their workers and the dealers that sell the equipment now will turn even worse.

Yet even those of us who were planning to put off new purchases will feel pain from the tariffs. To keep our older machinery running, we’re always repairing it—and the cost of spare parts will go up, massa.

So there’s no escaping the impact of these tariffs on our bottom line.

Yet the real harm to agriculture will come another way, as our trading partners retaliate against the United States.

That’s what happens in trade wars. Quan un costat imposa noves tarifes, l'altre costat respon amb tarifes pròpia — sovint en àrees econòmiques completament diferents.

Considerem el cas de pneumàtics xinès. President Obama limitat el seu accés als EUA. mercat a 2009. Xina colpejar torna amb noves restriccions a la American pollastre exporta. Els primers signes que proposem en aquest nou conflicte, Xina pot orientar sorgo, un gra crescut a Kansas i en altres llocs.

Hi ha connexió clara entre els pneumàtics i pollastres o d'acer i sorgo, except that the Chinese think that punishing American agriculture will capture the attention of U.S. political officials and persuade them to change their policies.

This latest dispute, No obstant això, isn’t mainly about China. The new steel and aluminum tariffs angered a long list of countries, including neighbors and allies like Canada, Mèxic, i Corea del Sud. Each one is an important customer of U.S. productes agrícoles.

Several have already threatened to retaliate. Their choice of targets will be both economic and political as they devise new trade barriers, probably on the crops and meat that come from the president’s political base in swing states of the American heartland.

Out here in farm country, we’re worried. History shows that nobody wins a trade war. En canvi, both sides suffer as they escalate their disputes and block economic cooperation—and the suffering in the United States will hit all of us – but the worst may take place among us farmers.

This column first appeared Mar 12 a El turó.