Negociadors per a dotze països de l'Associació Trans-Pacífic (TPP) Conveni comerç han pres un descans després de la reunió a Guam fa gairebé dues setmanes a finals de maig. Que estan pendents de l'u. Passatge de Congrés de l'autoritat de promoció de comerç (APT) per acceptar o rebutjar un acord final sense modificacions, and for Japan to make a final offer on agricultural and automobile imports. Representatives of farmers and ranchers in agricultural exporting TPP countries, Federació australiana Nacional pagesos, la Federació de americà Farm Bureau, l'Aliança de comerç agroalimentari canadenc i els agricultors Federats de Nova Zelanda, aprofitar l'oportunitat per reiterar la seva convocatòria a Guam “accés al mercat significatiu i integral"que s'estén igualment a tots els participants de països.

Quatre grups va dir en un comunicat el maig 19th, "No obstant això, no es pot subestimar la importància d'un acord beneficiós per a l'agricultura i alimentació exportadors. Aquest tipus d'acord només pot venir a través de termes acordada que liberalitzar el comerç a la regió TPP i lliurar competitiu, transparents, plurilateral, non-discriminatory access.” That means that any concession one country makes to another would be offered to all TPP countries. They did not demand the immediate elimination of all tariffs and non-tariff barriers. That was a goal several years ago when the group consisted of only five countries, però es va fer cada vegada més inconvenient quan primer l'u. joined the talks and then Japan. They continued to push for the longer term elimination of all tariff and non-tariff barriers.

The groups also called for the elimination of export subsidies and other policies that distort agricultural markets. According to the publication U dins. Comerç, l'u. had agreed to the ban on agricultural export subsidies if other TPP partners dropped demands for new disciplines for export credit programs. A ban on export subsidies had been tentatively agreed to in earlier WTO talks.

Si tots els països TPP accepta tarifes comuns i l'eliminació de subsidis d'exportació, these would be major steps forward to more agricultural trade among the twelve countries. It would also open markets for other countries, com Corea del, that has indicated an interest in joining after negotiations are completed. Per contra, es pot arribar a ser un obstacle per a la Xina unir-se a.

A Guam, Canadà semblava més compromès en les converses sobre l'accés al mercat per als seus productes sensibles, incloent-hi productes lactis i aviram, Segons un informe de U dins. Comerç and other trading partners have become more specific in making market-opening requests to Canada. Some TPP countries had talked of excluding Canada from an agreement unless they made more ambitious market access offers on those sensitive agricultural products. Canadian agricultural exporters had been asking their government to remain part of the TPP talks and a recent analysis from the Canadian Pork Council reinforced that position.

Només quan els negociadors es reuneixen de nou és tema obert, but many details are yet to be filled in. The agricultural groups have agreed to move quickly by making the best offers apply to everyone and minimizing the internal difference. As the statement said, “A comprehensive agreement would encourage regional supply chains with production and processing occurring where competitive advantages exist.” Those countries with a comparative advantage in certain agricultural products could look at the whole TPP region as a market, no només un o dos països on tenia més negociació de poder o per només uns pocs productes.

Consumers of imported agricultural products will also benefit. They will have more suppliers overall and more off-season suppliers looking to fill small gaps in supply. Supply shortages caused by weather or diseases could be filled by non-traditional suppliers throughout the region. Supply chains could increasingly be built around consumption points rather than production locations. Food importing countries could choose to join the completed TPP to adopt a set of import tariffs that are already established.

Many things could still go wrong in the talks. The four groups making the statement on agricultural trade are powerful in their countries, però són només grups privats, not the governments setting policy positions. And the governments are listening to other groups, as they are supposed to do. In Canada for example, els exportadors buscant un acord els compensat per interessos lactis i aviram defensant el statu quo.

L'u. House of Representatives has yet to announce plans to schedule a vote on the Senate-passed TPA. The lack of a scheduled vote probably means that the House Republican Leadership has yet to be assured of a majority vote for the bill. They will probably delay the vote until a ‘yes’ majority is guaranteed.

Then the Japanese take center stage. Japanese and U.S. negotiators continued to meet in Guam and have probably met since then. Japan needs an agreement to move its industrial policy forward and the four agricultural exporters need a deal with Japan on agriculture. Prime Minister Abe remains the best hope for both of those. They will not release their final offer until TPA is passed. Sr.. Abe pot tenir el seu acord resolt dins el seu partit o esperant TPA passar per fer la seva empenta final.

Una vegada l'u. i el Japó han llançat les seves posicions, the joint position of the four major TPP exporters becomes operational. Countries like Canada and the U.S. haurà d'elaborar la seva diferències internes i presents plans finals.

Si tots els països substancialment d'acord amb els quatre principals exportadors, the agriculture portion of the trade agreement could be worked out fairly quickly. Si no, un acord podria portar una estona com països resoldre les qüestions bilateralment.

Ross Korves és un comerç i analista de política econòmica de veritat sobre comerç & Tecnologia (www.truthabouttrade.org). Segueix-nos: @TruthAboutTrade i @World_Farmers a Twitter | Veritat sobre comerç & Tecnologia en Facebook.