Les últimes deu anys perspectives agrícola per la Food and Agriculture Organization de l'ONU (FAO) i l'organització per la cooperació i desenvolupament (L'OCDE) explains that international grain prices have declined from their recent historical highs in response to large crops in 2013/14. Prices are expected to decline for another year or two before settling above pre-2008 prices, però per sota de la pics recents, com les existències finals d'any carryover continuar reconstruir.

The outlook includes trend yield increase with no smaller than average crops due to weather or pest problems. The longer the period of good yields continues the larger carryover stocks will be to buffer production shortfalls and temper prices. The authors note that these price estimates are significantly lower than previous outlooks. World markets have changed during the high agricultural prices of the last eight years, la pregunta és quant.

Producció mundial de blat serà sobre 12 per cent més alt en 2023 que en 2013, un increment mitjà anual de 1.2 per cent en comparació amb 1.5 percent annual increases in the previous decade. Rice production will also grow 1.2 per cent per any, aproximadament la meitat del 2.2 percent annual increases in the previous decade. Most of that increase will come in least-developed Asian countries. Coarse grain production (sobretot blat de moro) s'incrementarà 1.7 per cent per any durant els propers 10 anys. Gra plantades superfície serà fins al Brasil, Argentina and Ukraine. Coarse grains will have the largest share of world total harvested area in 2023 a 34 per cent, seguit de blat a 22 per cent i les oleaginoses al 21 per cent.

Blat continuarà sent principalment un gra d'aliments amb comptabilitat consum humà directe per 68 per cent d'ús, about unchanged from recent years. Livestock and poultry feed will be about 20 percent of utilization. Some wheat is also expected to be used for biofuels in developed countries. Most of the rice will be used for human consumption in Asia where it is produced. The exception is Africa where it is increasingly becoming a food staple and its share of annual world imports will increase from 31 per cent a 38 per cent.

Utilització de gra global augmentarà 2.0 per cent per any, largely due to increased feed use. Moderate increases in industrial uses in developed countries and food uses in developing countries will add to demand. With petroleum prices at $147 en 2023, U. producció d'etanol convencional és esperat estar sobre 17 mil milions de galons.

Fluxos comercials de blat seguirà tendències recents amb el moviment dels països desenvolupats a desenvolupar un increment 17 per cent. L'u. perdrà 3 punts percentuals de quota de mercat (des de 21 per cent a 18 per cent), mentre que els guanys de la Federació Russa 4 (des de 10 per cent a 14 per cent). Rice trade will grow 3.1 per cent per any a 49.0 . MMT a 2023, avall de creixement de 3.6 percent annually over last ten years. L'u. continuarà a dominar les exportacions de gra amb 52 milions de tones mètriques (. MMT) en 2023. Argentina will have exports of 32 . MMT i Brasil 24 . MMT. China is expected to increase coarse grain import by 4 per cent per any de 2014 a 2023, amb la majoria dels que per a ús de pinsos, com l'autosuficiència política continua de blat i arròs.

Preus en les farines complexes s'espera que rebutjar des seu cim, but stay at a relatively higher plateau than grain prices. Real prices will be 30-45 per cent més que 2005 real prices in response to growing demand. World oilseed production will grow by 26 per cent en la pròxima dècada (2.6 per cent per any) amb un 11 per cent, augmentar en zona collides i un 14 percent increase in yield. En 2023, 91 per cent de farines i productes provenen d'Amèrica i Xina continuarà essent el principal importador, aixafament sobre 25 per cent de llavors oleaginoses total del món, 81.5 . MMT a 2023.

En els anys posteriors, producció d'oli de Palma es estabilitzar-se en sobre 36 percent of the world vegetable oil production. With petroleum prices at $147 per barril, les polítiques del govern són propensos a afavorir la producció de biodièsel que representen 14 percent of vegetable oil use by 2023. Strong demand for vegetable oil is expected to drive crush margins. Protein meal use in livestock and poultry feed is expected to grow more slowly as livestock and poultry production increases at a slower rate and growth in the share of protein meals in rations decreases.

Nominal meat prices are expected to remain high over the next ten years. Feed prices will decline from recent levels, but remain elevated and other costs will remain high. Pacific beef prices are at historic highs and are expected to move to $4,800 per tona mètrica (MT) per 2016, abans d'augmentar subministraments empenta preus inferiors. Preus de porc serà a prop $2,000 per MT, mentre que els preus de la carn avícola seguir menjar despeses superiors a $1,550 per MT in 2023. Meat prices in real terms have peaked or will in the near term.

Producció mundial de carn es preveu augmentar 1.6 per cent per any per als propers deu anys després de la pujada 2.3 percent per year for the previous ten years. Poultry meat will be the largest meat sector by 2020, accounting for almost half of the total increase in meat production by 2023. China will have the largest increase in overall meat production over the decade at 15.3 . MMT. Meat trade will increase more slowly than the last decade and account for 10.6 per cent de la producció. Asia will be the largest growth market for all types of meat.

Preus reals làctic baixarà lleugerament en els propers deu anys, but be substantially higher than prices prior to 2007. Increasing incomes and globalization of diets will raise demand for milk and dairy products in developing countries. Most of that new demand will be met with domestic production, però augmenta en comerç donarà suport a preus de Producte lacti de món.

La gran incògnita és quant els ingressos més alts i globalització de les dietes que impulsa la demanda de productes lactis també afectarà demanda de cereals, vegetable oils and meat. Cereals and protein meals appear to have some excess production capacity to be used if needed for livestock and poultry feed, but vegetables oils supplies are already tight. The authors note several times that environmental constraints may limit livestock and poultry production. That includes China which is already expected to increase meat production.

Aquesta anàlisi utilitza un conjunt conservador de les estimacions de la demanda dels consumidors, but they depend on assumptions that include some unknowable numbers. Markets will respond in real time to consumer demands and make production adjustments as demand grows.

Ross Korves és un comerç i analista de política econòmica de veritat sobre comerç &Tecnologia (www.truthabouttrade.org). Segueix-nos: @TruthAboutTrade en Refilar |Veritat sobre comerç & Tecnologia en Facebook.