President rus Vladimir Putin va anunciar recentment en el St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that further efforts would be made by the government to increase domestic livestock production as a substitute for meat imports. He said this would be done without violating international trade rules or adding import barriers. Aquesta norma és una norma general que no s'aplica només a productes ramaders i portaria a terme abans del final d'aquest any.

The Forum was a strange venue to make such an announcement since it’s the premier annual international trade event for the country and chaired by Russia’s Minister of Economic Development. President Putin may have been trying to show that Russia would follow international trade rules when encouraging domestic development. Per a 2013, Global Alerta de comerç, un comerç independent, servei de Monitorització, Rússia escollit com afegint més polítiques proteccionistes durant l'any que cap altre país i comptabilitat per a gairebé un terç el proteccionisme imposat durant l'any pel grup de les economies líders del g-20.

Some in the audience probably chuckled when President Putin said the products would be competitive in world markets. If the products were competitive in world markets, they would not have an import problem. They are not competitive and government subsidized credit programs and direct subsidies are meant to help them modernize and close the competitiveness gap. When they are still not competitive, import restrictions will then be imposed to create an artificial market. Every developed and developing country has tried this repeatedly in industrial policies with little success.

In recent years Russia has encouraged import substitution and imposed trade barriers on meat and dairy products. Despite the general dismal track record for import substitution in general, Russia has had some success in creating larger enterprises that can achieve some economies of scale with newer technology. L'u. Agrícola agregat a Moscou cita estima que més de 90 per cent de la carn de pollastre jove (pollastres d'engreix) is produced on modern farms. Broilers had the advantage of being a ‘new’ industry, with models of concentrated production in other countries. This process has taken 20 anys per desenvolupar, amb comptabilitat ara per a la producció nacional 85 per cent del consum.

Importacions de carn de pollastre per a 2014 sota una quota tarifa tarifa són esperats estar inalterat a 530,000 mètrica tones (MT). L'u. AG Attaché informa que està saturat mercat domèstic, producció només augmentarà 3 per cent en 2014 (en comparació amb un 10 percentatge de creixement anual les taxes de fa uns anys i 15-20 per cent abans que) and producers are looking for export markets where returns will be better. La 2013 production year was one of low profitability due to high feed costs. Under the Putin policies outlined in St. Petersburg, el mercat ha de romandre obert.

At the opposite end of the spectrum is the dairy industry. It is old, amb només 40 percentatge de les vaques lleteres a més gran, modern farms. The smaller farms are more sensitive to feed supplies and prices. Russia has been importing higher producing cows from Europe and the U.S., but most of those are going to the larger farms. Per a 2014, números de vaca s'espera que s'estableixen 2.5 producció per cent i llet cap avall 3.0 per cent. Producers continue to push for long-term interest rate subsidies to build modern dairy farms. Some fluid milk is imported from Belarus, its neighbor to the west. Imports provide for 72 per cent del consum de llet secs nonfat, 41 per cent per a la llet en pols, 45 percentatge de formatge i 38 per cent de mantega.

Russia does not have a beef industry like the U.S. It follows more the European model build on the dairy herd. L'u. AG Attaché Mostra 460,000 beef cows in his inventory estimates as of the beginning of 2014. Russia has been importing over 100,000 cria bestiar anualment, Bou i lactis, encara que les importacions van baixar alguns en 2013 because government support payments were delayed. Payments are expected to be on time in 2014 and imports should increase. En 2013, les importacions de 97,000 responsable amb 89 percent coming from Australia and the U.S. Russia is building a beef industry from the ground up which will likely take decades to complete. Russia imports about 1.0 MMT of beef on a carcass weight basis and that is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

Segons la informació de l'u. AG Attaché, the pork industry is in the midst of transition. Small scale producers accounted for over 70 per cent de la producció de carn de porc en 2005 i s'espera que rebutjo per menys de 20 per cent per 2020. Swine inventories on the small farms declined by 10 per cent en 2012 i 14 per cent en 2013 and are expected to be down by a similar amount in 2014. Many of the farms have suffered losses from African swine fever. Total swine inventories were up 2 per cent al final de 2013 des de 2012 nivells i porc total de producció en 2013 pujava 10 per cent. Production should be up again in 2014, ajudats per $2 billion in government payments to large farms. Russia’s largest pork producer accounted for almost 10 percent of national production in 2013. The number two producer increased production by almost 40 per cent.

Consum de carn de porc per càpita incrementat de 54 lliures en 2012 a 57 lliures en 2013, with increased production offsetting lower imports. Russia is still well short of the U.S. consum per càpita de 68 lliures i fins i tot darrere de la UE en 96 lliures. That should allow for market growth if personal income grows, but there will likely be increasing tensions between imports and subsidized domestic production.

Rússia va instituir una prohibició al febrer 2013 sobre les importacions dels EUA. vedella i porc i productes fins l'u. government provided guarantees the meat is ractopamine-free. Ractopamine is a growth stimulant used to make meat leaner. Al març 2014, accés al mercat va ser restaurat per alguns dels EUA. pork suppliers which guarantee they do not use ractopamine. Imports to Russia were down from parts of the EU due to African swine fever.

Qüestions comercials de carn eren comuns per a l'u. and other exporting countries before Russia joined the WTO two years ago. En unir-se a, Rússia va accedir a complir l'acord OMC sobre sanitaris i fitosanitaris (SPS) Mesures. In the last two years, all the old problems have continued. This latest announcement by President Putin promising more subsidized production means more of the same in the years immediately ahead.

Ross Korves és un comerç i analista de política econòmica de veritat sobre comerç &Tecnologia (www.truthabouttrade.org). Segueix-nos: @TruthAboutTrade en Refilar |Veritat sobre comerç & Tecnologia en Facebook.