6   +   2   =

My father always said that you cant count on a harvest until it actually comes inbut Im ready toannouncethat this years crop of pistachios, which well shake loose in September, could be the best Ive seen in 20 years of farming them here in Californias San Joaquin Valley.

Weve enjoyed good weather, with theproperamount ofheat during the day andadequate chilling through the wintertime.Water is expensive, butwere gettingenough. والآن, our trees aresimplyloaded with nuts.

So were ready to sell to the world.

ويتوقع محصول وافر من محصول الفستق في كاليفورنيا هذا العام.

Our valleyalreadysupplies the U.S. market with virtually allofthe pistachios it needs, and weve gotlotsleft over.About half my harvest willgoabroad.

The only problem is that our biggestexportcustomer, الصين, فقط صفع تعريفة ضخمة على منتجاتنا: سيتعين على المستهلكين الصينيين الذين يرغبون في شراء فستق كاليفورنيا الآن دفع ضريبة بنسبة 40 في المائة, as part of a retaliatory measure in anemergingtrade war between their country and the United States.

بدأ الخلاف في وقت سابق من هذا العام, when President Trump imposed tariffs on imported steel and aluminum and then broadened the conflict by adding new dutieson$50 billion in Chinese products. ردت الصين بإجراءات الحماية الخاصة بها, and now my pistachio farm is caughtin the crossfire ofan unfortunate controversy.

Thepistachiotariffessentiallywill drive usout of the Chinese market. Theresjustno way aroundit. We cant cut our prices sharply enough to make up the difference.

Thats partly the point. The Chinese dont want to collect revenueon tariffsas much as they want to shut downa business weve worked hard to build for more than a decade. استراتيجيتهم هي خلق ألم اقتصادي في كاليفورنيا, which they believe willturn intopolitical pressure on the White House, forcing President Trumpto rethinkhishard line on trade.

Imalways againsta trade warbut Im also hopefulthat Chinas scheme wont work out the wayBeijingimagines. حقيقة,our immediate futurelooks bright.

تصدر الولايات المتحدة الفستق أكثر من أي شخص آخر, تقريبا 220,000 طن متري العام الماضي. أقرب منافس لنا هو إيران, حوالي 144,000 metric tons.Iran, ومع ذلك,will struggle to satisfy Chinas huge demand, الذي يبلغ ذروته حول العام الصيني الجديد, والتي في 2019 will take place on February 5.

Thats because this yearIranhas suffered a crop disaster: Itspistachio production will plummet by as much as 75 نسبه مئويه, بسبب الطقس المتطرف, شح الماء, وتملح التربة.

Ifthe Iranians shifttheirlimited output to China, well sell our California pistachios to the customerstheyabandon. Wellfind newbuyersin Europe, الهند, and elsewhere.

Demandfor our pistachiosis strong.We grow the best in the world.We sold out last years crop and were well on our way to selling out this years bounty, eventhoughthe new tariff meansthat in recent weeks,we havent solda single nut to China.

This is the messagewed like toeveryone to hear: مزارعو فستق كاليفورنيا مفتوحون للعمل. Well sell to anybody who wants to try the highest-quality nut on the market.

خلاصة القول هي أنه على المدى القصير,despite the trade war, well be okay.The circumstances of pistachio production in 2018 arestackedin our favor.

My worry is what will happenoverthe long term. Ifthe trade war grinds on and Chinas pistachio tariffremainsin place,the Chinese may yet hurt us in exactly the way they intend.

 

عندما تخفف الولايات المتحدة والصين من النزاعات التجارية لم يتم تحديدها بعد.

عاجلا وليس آجلا, thistrade war will have tostop.EvenPresidentTrump knows this, كما أشار في أبريل, when he tried to calm the nerves of anxious farmers during the trade wars opening salvos.

Well make it up to them, he said. The farmers will be better off than they ever were. سيستغرق الأمر بعض الوقت للوصول إلى هناك, لكنها قد تكون سريعة جدًا, actually.

Im willing to give the president a bit of time, but I doplan to holdhimto his promise.

 

 

 

ملحوظة – ظهرت نسخة من هذا العمود لأول مرة في التل في يوليو 24.