الولايات المتحدة. وزارة التجارة أعلنت في تشرين الأول/أكتوبر 27 تحديد إيجابي في مكافحة الإغراق (الإعلانية) investigation of sugar imported from Mexico and set dumping margins on sugar from Mexican processors ranging from 39.54 في المئة إلى 47.26 في المائة. These preliminary AD duties come after Commerce imposed preliminary countervailing duties (الرسوم التعويضية) in August ranging from 2.99 إلى 17.01 في المائة. Also on October 27, Commerce announced a draft agreement with the Government of Mexico to suspend the AD and CVD investigations.
إطار اتفاق نافتا, المكسيك يمكن تصدير كميات غير محدودة من السكر إلى الولايات المتحدة. التعريفات مجاناً. الحكومة المكسيكية مثل العديد من الحكومات الوطنية الأخرى التي سياسيا لا يمكن أن يرفض تقديم المساعدة لصناعة السكر عندما تكون الأسعار منخفضة والسكر المعالجات تواجه الإفلاس. كما يأتي الضغط من آلاف مزارعي القصب الصغيرة الحجم التي لا تملك غيرها من المحاصيل التي يمكن أن تنمو مربح.
عندما تكون كبيرة محاصيل السكر في العالم, سعر الدعم للولايات المتحدة. السكر هو إلى حد كبير من أعلى الأسعار في السوق العالمية، وتشجع السكر المكسيكية في التدفق إلى الولايات المتحدة. Imports from other producing countries are constrained by WTO tariff rate quotas (الحصص التعريفية).
The suspension agreement was no great surprise. ويسمح القانون الرسوم التعويضية بتعليق اتفاق يتم التفاوض بشأنها على أساس فرض قيود كمية. This protects Mexico’s preferential access to the U.S. سوق السكر بموجب اتفاق نافتا. The suspension agreement has two parts. The CVD suspension agreement is between the U.S. Department of Commerce and the Mexican government and limits the quantity of imports, and the AD draft suspension agreement is between Commerce and the Mexican industry and sets minimum prices for imports.
The draft suspension agreement provides for:
- Minimum reference prices of 23.57 cents per pound for refined sugar and 20.75 cents per pound for other sugar from Mexico entering the U.S.,
- Mexican export licenses for sugar to enter the U.S.,
- Export limits based on anticipated U.S. needs for imported sugar,
- Limits on the amount of refined sugar that can enter the U.S., و
- Limits on the timing of shipments prior to December 31 وفي آذار/مارس 31 of the marketing year.
The deadline for comments from interested parties to Commerce on the draft suspension agreement was November 18. The duration of the agreements is not defined, but termination of the agreements can be considered during the course of a customary five-year sunset review.
The suspension agreement more closely aligns the Mexican sugar program with the U.S. البرنامج. The minimum import prices will remove price competition of imported Mexican sugar with domestic sugar under U.S. price support program. That is the easy part of the agreement.
The much more difficult part is to avoid oversupplying the U.S. market by restricting how much sugar Mexico can import throughout the year and in specific parts of the year. USDA needs to balance supply and demand under the U.S. sugar program to meet the needs of domestic users at reasonable prices. The quantity that Mexico can supply to the U.S. is not established as a specific amount in the agreement. A ‘target quantity’ of U.S. needs provided by Mexico will be calculated several times during specific periods in the crop year.
The agreement also tries to spread shipments throughout the year, with no more than 30 percent of the Mexican quota calculated in July and effective Oct. 1 being shipped between Oct. 1 and Dec. 31. No more than 55 percent of the quota calculated each December and effective Jan. 1 may be exported from Mexico from Oct. 1 through March 31.
These target quantity calculations and timing of shipments are the supply management tools that are hard to manage. This is doubly hard with USDA’s mandate to keep sugar market prices high enough to avoid producer loan forfeitures and government costs, while ensuring users pay reasonable prices.
Some analysts have concluded the agreement will let Mexico supply the U.S. sugar market needs in excess of what can be supplied by U.S. إنتاج, imports under a WTO TRQs and imports from other countries that have a free trade agreement with the U.S. Other sugar suppliers see themselves as being shut out of any growth of the U.S. السوق.
The Australian Sugar Industry Alliance (آسا) was quoted in The Land magazine as saying “In return for the US not imposing anti-dumping and countervailing duties on sugar imported from Mexico, the Mexican government has agreed to limit the quantity of sugar it sells to the US…The quid pro quo is that Mexico will take the first opportunity to supply any additional sugar that may be required to meet shortfalls in US production ….It effectively cuts Australia and other TRQ (‘tariff rate quota’) suppliers out of the opportunity they would otherwise have to meet these additional US supply needs.” The Australian sugar industry considers itself is as the world’s third-largest exporter of raw sugar and has been a historical supplier to the U.S. Australia already has a dispute with the U.S. over additional access for sugar under the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade agreement now being negotiated.
The suspension agreement with Mexico will not end the challenges in managing the U.S. برنامج السكر. Any price support program like sugar requires by its nature a managed trade program to keep the U.S. سعر السوق أعلى معدل القروض عندما تنخفض الأسعار العالمية لتجنب أو تقليل الغرامات.
كورفيس روس هو التجارة ومحللي السياسات الاقتصادية مع "لجنة تقصي الحقائق حول التجارة" &التكنولوجيا (www.truthabouttrade.org). اتبع بنا: @TruthAboutTrade على تويتر |لجنة تقصي الحقائق حول التجارة & التكنولوجيا في فيسبوك.