USDA’s latest forecast for U.S. agricultural exports for fiscal year (FY) 2011 (اكتوبر 1, 2010 –سبتمبر 30, 2011) is record large at $126.5 مليار, حتى من $108.7 billion in FY 2010 و $114.9 billion in FY 2008, the previous record year. Higher prices account for much of the increase in export value, but export volumes for the major bulk products are expected to be up 8.2 percent from last year at 139.5 مليون طن متري (MMT) and up 0.2 percent from the record 2008 shipments. الامريكى. agricultural imports are also projected to be a record at $85.5 مليار, فوق 8.2 في المئة من $79.0 billion in FY 2010, with about three-fourths of the increase due to higher import prices.

 

الامريكى. wheat export value will be up 66 في المئة الى $9.8 مليار, with volume up 11.3 في المئة الى 34.5 MMT with less competition from the drought reduced Black Sea crops. Export value for corn will be up 16 في المئة الى $12.3 مليار, but volume is expected to decline 3.8 في المئة الى 50.0 MMT due to lower production in the U.S. Soybeans, meal and oil will have another record year in export value at $24.8 مليار, فوق 12.2 في المئة عن العام الماضي, while volume will be down 2.2 percent as record large whole soybean exports of 42.7 MMT will be offset by a 17.8 percent decline in soybean meal exports to 8.3 MMT. Record high cotton prices will push cotton export value to $8.0 مليار, حتى من $4.8 billion last year while export volume will increase only 0.1 MMT ل 3.4 MMT because U.S. carryover stocks are expected to be at minimal levels. Rice exports will be mostly unchanged with exports value again at $2.3 مليار, while volume increases 0.1 MMT ل 4.4 MMT.

Beef and veal export value will be up 15.7 في المئة في $3.7 مليار, while volume increases 14.3 في المئة الى 0.8 MMT. Pork export values will set a record at $4.6 مليار, فوق 17.9 في المئة من $3.9 billion last year and in 2008 with volume of 1.6 MMT. Young chicken meat export values are expected to be unchanged in FY2010 at $3.0 billion as volume holds steady at 3.0 MMT. Dairy product sales will be $3.2 مليار, أسفل من $3.4 billion last year. Horticultural products are expected to set another record at $24.3 مليار, حتى من $22.6 billion in FY 2010, led by fresh fruits and vegetables at $6.2 مليار, processed fruits and vegetables at $5.9 billion and tree nuts at $4.3 مليار.

Asia is expected to continue to be the largest U.S. agricultural export region at $54.8 مليار, 43.3 في المئة من الامريكى. صادرات. NAFTA partners Canada and Mexico are the second largest region at 26.9 نسبه مئويه. The two regions account for 70 في المئة من الامريكى. صادرات. Canada continues to be the largest market at $18.0 مليار, followed by China at $17.5 مليار. These are two totally different markets with Canada purchasing a wide range of bulk and further process products and China’s purchases concentrated in a few bulk products. Horticultural products account for 40 في المئة من الامريكى. sales to Canada. Of $15 billion of sales to China in FY 2010, soybeans were $9.3 مليار, قطن $1.7 billion and hides and skins $900 مليون. الامريكى. agricultural imports from China are expected to be only $3.3 billion in FY 2011, while imports from Canada are estimated at $17.5 مليار.

After Canada and China, Mexico is the third largest export country for the U.S. في $16.0 billion followed by Japan at $13.0 billion and South Korea at $6.0 مليار. ال 27 countries of the EU are expected to have imports from the U.S. من $9.1 billion in FY 2011. The Middle East/North Africa region will have imports of $10.9 مليار, حتى من $8.4 billion in FY 2010 and just surpassing FY 2008’s peak of $10.8 مليار. Turkey at $2.7 مليار, with a 45 percent increase in imports in 2010 و 30 percent expected in 2011, and Egypt at $2.0 مليار, with increased grain sales, are the two largest markets in the region.

كما هو موضح سابقا, about three-fourths of the increase in the value of imports is related to higher market prices. According to USDA, “world food prices are up 8 percent in the past year and a half, while beverage prices are up 24 نسبه مئويه, including coffee, cocoa, tea, wine, and beer prices.The segments where USDA expects the biggest increases in volume are fresh fruits with a 0.4 MMT increase to 9.5 MMT, and fresh vegetables with a 0.3 MMT increase to 5.7 MMT, cocoa and chocolate with a 0.3 MMT increase to 1.4 MMT, and processed vegetables with a 0.2 MMT increase to 3.1 MMT. Horticultural products are expected to account for $3.0 billion of the $6.5 billion increase in imports with fresh fruit up by $0.7 billion and fresh vegetables up by $0.6 مليار. Sugar and tropical products will account for another $2.0 billion of increased imports, with natural rubber up $0.6 billion to $3.0 مليار, cocoa and chocolate up $.05 billion to $4.7 مليار, sweeteners up $0.5 billion to $4.6 billion and coffee up $0.4 billion to $4.8 مليار. ماشية, dairy and poultry product imports are expected to be up $0.7 billion to $11.5 مليار.

Canada will be the largest import source for the U.S. for agricultural products at $17.5 billion for FY 2011, followed closely by Mexico at $15.0 مليار, including two-thirds of imported fresh vegetables, و ال 27 countries of the EU at $15 مليار. Other major importers include China at $3.3 مليار, إندونيسيا $2.9 مليار, البرازيل $2.7 مليار, تشيلي $2.4 billion and Australia $2.3 مليار.

These export and import projections come with the usual caveats about government monetary and fiscal policies and private economic activities that impact economic growth. الامريكى. GDP growth is assumed to be 2.7 percent higher in 2010 و 2.5 في المئة في 2011. USDA expects world trade volume to expand 14.6 percent in calendar year 2010, almost offsetting the decline in 2009, with trade to grow by 7.5 في المئة في 2011. Countries cannot expand agricultural imports unless they are selling other products in world markets. Sovereign debt problems in the EU and credit tightening in China are adding to the uncertainties.

Two years ago when commodity prices were in sharp decline and economic growth was slowing around the world, it would have been hard to predict the rapid recovery in agricultural trade. Open agricultural and non-agricultural trade under WTO rules allowed trade to keep flowing and agricultural trade avoided an extended period of decline. That U.S. agricultural export volumes will challenge highs reach in FY 2008 reflects the ability of the world economy to adjust to market condition.